Home Run Leader Futures
We have a 3 pack of picks for the player to have the most HRs in 2022.
Yordan Alvarez - 20/1
It's tough to really know how good Yordan Alvarez is but over his first 976 PAs compared with players over 750 PAs since 2019 his SLG% ranks third, behind only Mike Trout and Fernando Tatis Jr, his wRC+ is tied for third, his wOBA ranks sixth, and he ranks seventh among hitters in barrel rate with 600-plus batted ball events. He had 33 HRs last year in 598 plate appearances, we think he can build on that and with him being only 24 years old he should still have some room for improvement. We like him anywhere 20/1 or above to lead the MLB in HRs this year.
Jorge Soler - 80/1
Solar hits the baseball extremely hard, he has been in the top percentile of max Exit Velocity since 2015 and has seemingly gotten stronger with age. This is somewhat of a flyer, and obviously the number is reflective of that, as Soler is somewhat of an enigma. His profile screams home run hitter; however, you may be surprised when you look at his actual home run count. He has only totaled over 20 homers twice and only 50 RBI twice. But if you look deeper he didn't have many plate appearances in most of those seasons. He had over 600 PAs twice, once was last year when he hit 27 and then 2019, when he hit 48 homers and finished 3rd in total HRs. He will be on a bad Marlins team so he should have no problem getting lots of at bats and not worrying about striking out as he did in 2019 when he also finished in the top five in total strikeouts.
Bobby Witt Jr. 100/1
There were numbers out there early like 500/1 and 300/1 on Witt Jr. but we still think there is value at 100. It was just 2 seasons ago that a rookie led the league in HRs when Pete Alonso hit 52, so it's not crazy to think it could happen again. Witt Jr. hit 33 HRs in 123 games last year in the Minors, obviously the pitching will be much tougher but he has a really nice swing and some great power. When you look at his swing side by side to Mike Trout they are extremely similar, not to say he's going to be Mike Trout but at north of 100/1 for him to hit the most bombs we think it's worth a shot.