Three Under the Radar Win Total Plays
It's fun to look over the Pac 12 and SEC to find futures bets but it's imperative to look deeper into smaller conferences to find good bets.
Southern Miss - Over 5.5 +120
Frank Gore Jr. is the name that stands out on this team, but they also return a ton of production from last year. The offensive line needs to improve but we like their chances with the continuity that they bring back and they added a few intriguing tranfers to bolster that unit. They don't have too much talent at QB but if they can run the ball well and play good defense they should be able to get to 6 wins. Which brings us to the real strength of this team which is their defense. They have a lot of returning talent in the secondary and in their linebacking core. They brought in some nice transfers to improve their Dline including Arkansas transfer Jalen Williams. They should be able to run the ball, play solid defense, and take advantage of a Sun Belt conference that should provide some easy wins.
Arkansas St. - Under 5 -140
We'll take an over in the Sun Belt with Southern Miss and play an under as well with Arkansas St. Hopefully we get a Southern Miss win when they play each other which would help out both of our bets. Arkansas St. comes off a year in which they were dead last in the nation on defense against the run. They brought in some new bodies but not much notable talent and they will most likely take some time to jell together. On defense their secondary, which really wasn't tested last year because teams simply ran all over them, will take a hit losing safety Jarius Reimonenq in the transfer portal who was their leading tackler from a year ago. On offense they were able to throw the ball a little bit last year but that should see some regression as they lost their top reciever from a year ago Corey Rucker, also to the transfer portal. Combine their bad defense with a subpar run game and a passing attack that is losing some pieces and we like them to go under 5 wins. They really popped in the model too as it had them winning 5 or less games 71% of the time, so -140 on the under 5 looks like great value even though 5 would be a push.
Nevada - Under 4.5 -120
Nevada brings back the least amount of production in the country. This is a stat that will no doubt be brought up a lot heading into the season so jumping on this under now will more than likely provide some good value. They say it's an overhaul and they have brought in some good pieces in the transfer portal but we're not buying it. They lost QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs to the NFL which made up a huge part of their offense last year. It's never easy to bring in a bunch of brand new pieces and find success right away, especially when you lose that much production on offense and lose pretty much every playmaker on defense as well. You also have a Mountain West Conference that will be better with the likes of Boise St, Fresno St, and San Jose St who we project to all have solid seasons. They also have to play Iowa and Air Force out of conference which they will more than likely add two more losses to their record. Jump on this one now as people will definitely be talking heavily about how much production this team lost heading into the season.