PGA Championship Outrights
The PGA Championship is creeping closer and we have 2 golfers that we think are still bettable at their current prices.
We already have a few golfers in pocket and were lucky to pick off a few good numbers on them earlier on in the year. We found a few plays that we just bet however, and think that there is still some good value with these two players for the upcoming major at Southern Hills.
Sam Burns 40/1 or Better (47/1 Circa)
Burns was on fire to start out the year and has really been a hot name on tour through the end of last season as well. He started out the year with a win then went T14, T5, T7, T3, T2, T19. He cooled off a bit after that but recently he won the Valspar and finished 2nd in the Zurich Classic when he was paired with Billy Horshel. He hasn't really had a good showing in a major yet but the PGA has historically been the kind of place that quite a few similar players have won at.
Either way though Burns is a good fit for this course, he is long off the tee and fairly accurate. He is great on approach ranking 11th on tour in SG Approach, his tee to green numbers are good as well as he ranks 16th in SG TTG. He is a strong putter which will be important on this course I believe as they are sure to have it set up tough with lightning fast greens.
Burns also is a southern boy who played his college golf at LSU which is a stones throw away from Oklahoma. So he should be familiar with this style of course and I'm sure he has played in quite a few times. He is also in this group of young up and coming players who one would think will continue to challenge and more than like break through for one of these majors with the likes of Zalatoris, Hovland, and Cam Smith. Unlike Hovland and Smith however, his odds are still pretty enticing at 40/1 and higher. We'll take a shot a player who has proved he can win on tour and has all the tools to win a major very soon.
Justin Thomas 16/1 or Better (17/1 at Circa)
JT could make the case for being the best player in the world at any given time, he's been a little shaky in majors historically but he does have one to his name and it is a PGA Championship. He is a little bit under the radar with the likes of Scheffler, Morikawa, and Rahm generating a lot of the buzz. This could be a positive for him as he is quietly playing some really good golf.
This is a course that we think fits him really well, he is long off the tee, great on approach and very good around the greens. This is going to be a very difficult course but if JT brings his A game he can definitely win this tournament. He ranks 3rd on tour in SG TTG, 4th in SG Approach, and 6th on tour in scrambling. Really you can look at just about any stat category with him and he is above average, it really comes down to if he's on his game or not and if he is he can beat anyone in the world.
He hasn't been playing too many events but he has been in really good form this year even though he hasn't won a tournament yet this year. He's got 7 top ten finishes this year to date including a T8 at the Masters. You get the feeling that he is gearing up for the PGA and with Bones on the back providing some extra experience having caddied for Phil here in 2007 this could be a very good setup for JT at Southern Hills. JT is another southern boy who grew up in Kentucky and went to University of Alabama so he should also be very comfortable on this course. He is the shortest shot that we have on our card and the one in the group of favorites that we will be backing at Southern Hills.