NFL Rookie of the Year Bets
It may seem a little early to start betting NFL rookie of the year futures but before you know it football will be here and it's best to jump on these numbers sooner rather than later.
There are a few things that are important to remember when betting rookie of the year markets. First a player must be in a situation in which they will get significant playing time. Then you need to think about the coaching and the scheme that they are in and will that provide opportunities to accumulate the stats necessary to be voted on for the award. They're also very much narrative driven awards, especially if two players have similar stats. Also players in bigger markets tend to get the edge often times close races as well.
On offense I'm generally looking at the QB position first, unless you have a situation like last year where there weren't any promising rookie QBs and it was a bit more wide open. Wide recievers and running backs can definitely win the award as well but if there is a close race the nod will generally go to the QB. Seven of the last 15 years have seen a QB rookie of the year winner and like I said before a lot of the other years just had really dissapointing QB classes. First and foremost though, regarless of position, it's necessary to look at projected playing time, roles within the team, opportunities to get stats withing the composition of the team, and high upside players with a lot of talent and promising skill sets.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Pick: Bryce Young +500
He's been talked about as the Steph Curry of the NFL. In spite of his size he has incredible arm strength and throwing accuracy, he is said to have elite awareness and processing skills, a strong work ethic and high charater person, and he is going into a favorable position in Carolina with a team that nearly won the division last year. Let's not forget that the Panthers traded up for the number one pick, they didn't lose the most games in the league last year. So Young comes into a team with a good defense, underrated skill players on offense, and a coach that has had previous success developing QBs. The Panthers actually have some nice pieces on offense bringing in Miles Sanders, Adam Theilan, Hayden Hurst, and DJ Chark. They also have some promising young players with Terrance Marshall, Laviska Shenault, Shi Smith, Chubba Hubbard, and Raheem Blackshear. Bryce Young is miles ahead of all the other QBs in this class and if he can get Carolina into the playoffs in a weak NFC he will be the rookie of the year.
If you want to add a few more players to your betting portfolio for this market, which is definitely a good idea especially if you can find some longer odds, there are a few under the radar players that I also like. Jahmyr Gibbs should fill the void left by Deandre Swift in Detroit. If he can stay healthy, unlike Swift did, and doesn't get pulled out everytime they get close to goal line he could easily play his way into the race. If you can get 10/1 on him that makes some sense. Two longer shots that I would also consider are Dalton Kincaid on Buffalo and Kansas City's Rashee Rice. Kincaid is a perfect fit in Buffalo and should get a lot of opportunities allowing him to put up some big numbers that even at tight end could get him some consideration. Rice is really impressive all around reciever and if he gets a chance in KC he could really shine. 35/1 seems like good value on both of them if you want to take a few flyers.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Myles Murphy +2000 & Deonte Banks +2000
I'm gonna go a little further down the board on this one. With the defensive rookie of the year award it's very important that you find players that will be impactful from day one, which can sometimes be tougher to project on defense as opposed to offense. When looking at the top candidates this year there really isn't anyone who stands out and in fact you can poke holes in pretty much every player at the top of the odds board. It's very difficult for defensive tackles to rack up enough stats to compete for the award, in fact in the past 27 years there have only been two who've won this award Aaron Donald in 2014 and Ndamukong Suh in 2010. So I'm going to throw out all the DTs that were drafted, although Jalen Carter should be an absolute beast in Philly I don't think he'll be able to get the numbers with how much they rotate their linemen. Most of the first round linebackers are projected as rotational players at best so it's tough to see any of them garnering enough support either. Cornerback is also a tough position to win this award from, although Sauce did it last year, because if you don't get a bunch of INTs then it's harder to justify your case. When you look at the top pass rushers they all went to bad teams. It's tough to produce when you don't have help around you and when you're getting beated up having to play against the run in second half because you're losing. It's very tough to rack up sack numbers in that situation so I don't see Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson making a big enough impact to compete for this award.
I did go with one CB in Deonte Banks at 20/1. With the way the Giants play defense and how much pressure they bring there will be a lot of opportunities for Banks to get his hands on the football. He really looks like a playmaker and demonstrated in college that he has a nose for the football. The Giants were very fortunate that he was available for them and he is a perfect fit in that defense. He could easily rack up some nice INT and PD stats in their scheme, plus the fact that he's playing in New York can't hurt.
The other player I went with was a pass rusher that the Cincinnati Bengals drafted with their first round pick. Myles Murphy was talked about as a sure fire top ten pick just a few years ago and there were rumors that a number of teams liked him a lot throughout the draft process. He was a five star kid going into Clemson so he's got the pedigree. His stock took a dip last year with how poorly Clemson played but he landed in a great situation in Cincy where he should see some significant playing time and lots of opportunities to get sacks and pressures. Cincy is one of the favorites in the AFC and should be up late in a lot games which lends itself to their pass rushers pinning their ears back and focusing solely on rushing the passer. The Bengals have built a sneaky good defensive line so he will be surrounded by good players which will also help him produce. He's a big kid at 6'5" with long arms, a prodotypical defensive end which fits great into Lou Amarumo's system. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he leads the rookie class in sacks this year so I'll take a stab at him at 20/1 or better as well.
Written by Travis Gillmore