MLB AL CyYoung Futures Bet
We're a little over a month into the MLB season and this is a great time to re-examine some of the futures markets.
Kevin Gausman may not be the flashiest pitcher out there but his odds at 35/1 for the AL Cy Young Award are too long. When we look at his first month of the season he’s got a 2.19 ERA and an incredible 31 K’s to 0 BB and 0 HR given up. He is on an incredible pace and while this may even out at some point he’s off to a strong start and we don’t expect these odds to last if he puts up another strong performance against the Astros on Sunday.
He had a strong year last year with SF and maintained a good K/BB ratio and racked up 14 wins. We think on a very good Blue Jays team he will have a great chance to put up some impressive numbers on potentially the best team in the AL. He will need to lower his ERA a bit and make sure that he doesn’t let it get too high like he did last year but we like his chances to do so.
Also when you look at the underlying metrics for his season so far there are some promising signs. He is in the 77th percentile for xERA which is a good sign, his K% is in the 88th percentile and his BB% is in the 97th percentile. Beyond that though he ranks 91st in Whiff%, 100th in Chase Rate, and 77th in xwOBA. He has some improvement to be made in his Hard Hit% and avg exit velocity but neither of those are in too bad of shape.
We think he can build off of last year’s success and make a run at the AL Cy Young even at the age of 31. No one is really running away with this award too as all of the top tier pitchers in the AL have struggled somewhat out of the gates. Gausman still has good velocity and spin rate on his fastball which is a great sign for an older pitcher. We like his chances to make a run at the Award and we think 35/1 is fantastic value that won’t be around much longer.