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Three Outright Bets for the 2023 Masters

The Masters is nearly here and there are three golfers that I like to make a run at a green jacket.

Our model for this week factored in a lot of the usual keys to success that you'll hear people talk about each this week. Obviously approach was heavily weighted, strokes gained around the green was also highly accounted for. Also included were Par 5 scoring, driving distance (especially with wet conditions expected), 3 putt and bogey avoidance, and a little bit of scrambling and GIR gained.

Collin Morikawa - Possibly the best approach player on tour Morikawa will once again make my outrights card for the Masters. I just can't quit Morikawa and we are starting to see his price drift now which intrigues me even more. He has an affinity for competing in majors as proven by his strong track record. His putting and short game are points of concern but with some rain in the forecast this week maybe the greens slow down a bit which could help him in those areas and should allow him to take aim at these pins with his lethal approach game. He showed well in the model both long term and over his recent rounds. He hasn't had the greatest year and I really hated to see his meltdown in Hawaii but I truly believe he is a big game hunter, he likes this course, and his game is suited well for a run at a green jacket.

Tony Finau - Top ten Tony made my card as well this year. He has generally been a player that I haven't backed heavily in the outright market, especially not in majors, but he picked up multiple wins over the past year and seems to have gotten that runner up monkey off his back. This is a course that he has performed well at in the past with three top tens in his past five appearances. He is long off the tee which will definitely help this week and his approach game is one of the best on tour. His putting and short game is solid too. His odds have come down a bit, I have some 40/1 in pocket but I still think there's some value as low as 28/1.

Tommy Fleetwood - I'll go a little further down the board with my third pick and go with a golfer who I really like, especially at his current odds which can be found as high as 75/1. Fleetwood is someone who I was, and am, targeted for the Open Championship which will be played in his hometown of Liverpool. But with his current form, course history, and the statistical strengths of his game I think he provides some good value this week as well. He's got three top 20s in the last five years here and he really hasn't even played all that well in doing so. His game is really rounding into form as he's been in contention in multiple events already this season. He finished 20th at the Genesis Invitational which is a bit of a corollary course to Augusta National. He was also a player that the model showed tremendous value on, he ranked very high in all categories especially over his last 4-24 rounds played.

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