Value Play in the AFC East Division *12/23 Update

Never overreact to week one in the NFL. There are often very profitable bets you can make in the futures market after the week or two.

Over the first few weeks of the NFL season it's extremely important to remember all the work you did in the offseason and understand that no team is as bad as their worst game or as good as their best game. Futures markets shift on a weekly basis and it's important to jump on good numbers as you see them throughout the year. After just one week we think there is a great opportunity in the AFC East Division.

Going into the year Buffalo was the odds on favorite to win the AFC East. They were hovering around -200 to win the division before the start of the season. Now after a poor week one performance you can get them as low as -120, which hasn't ever been available this year or during the summer. So because of their week one loss you have an opportunity to get some great value on them to win the division.

The Bills are in a great bounce back spot against a Miami team that is overrated and is coming off a less than impressive win. If they play well down in Miami and bounce back with a win their odds will begin to creep up again.

Also when you look at the rest of the division there really isn't too much to be scared of. The Patriots look pretty good but not like the perennial powerhouse they've been in years past. The Jets are terrible and the Dolphins have a lot of concerns, the first of which is their QB situation. We like Buffalo's team, we were high on them coming into the season and aren't going to overreact after one bad performance. While we aren't rushing to bet them to win the Super Bowl we do think they are still the best team in this division by a fairly sizable margin. At -130 or better this is too good of a price to pass up and one that may not be there if they are impressive against Miami and the other division teams don't improve.

***Hedge Alert - 12/4/21
The Bills are fading quickly as we see New England battling them hard for the AFC East division. The Bills could win on Monday night and get themselves back on top of the division however, we think they are a team that is trending in the wrong direction while New England seems to be firing on all cylinders. We're going to take the points with the Patriots this week to hedge our division play and hopefully hit a middle. We bet the +3 and will add more to it if we can get a better number in game. This is going to be a cold weather game, with high winds that is sure to be a tactical battle. We like the team with the better run game and the better coach. While we'd like to see the Bills get it done we think the smart decision is to bet the Pats in this game.

***12/23 Update
Huge game in the AFC East this week, this is a repeat of the weather game from a few weeks ago between Buffalo and the Pats. We liked NE in that game but we think Buffalo can bounce back and get the win this week. We're going to add on to our original position at a better number of +150 for the Bills to win this division. Buffalo had a lot of chances in that first game vs NE and we think Allen will put this team on his back in this spot where he should be able to throw the ball and score enough points to win. Mac Jones has proven to be a good pick for New England but he hasn't been forced to play from behind very often this year and when he has he's come up short. He has a bright future but we'll go with the better QB in this spot. Buffalo will firmly hold control of this division if they win this week, they have the division record tie breaker and they have their final two games at home against Atlanta and then the Jets where they will be a double digit favorite in both games. If Buffalo wins this week they will be odds on for this division.

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