NFL Futures: MVP Candidates who you should jump on now
August 10, 2021
We started our MVP portfolio with three players whose odds we think hold value and that could shift if you don't bet them now. MVP is a great market to take advantage of because you can get some nice payouts and great value.
Top Shelf Futures
If you want to get the most value and get the best number you have to constantly monitor the market and jump in before you think the odds will get bet down. The more NFL people watch the more the are going to bet. The numbers are going to change, if someone gets off to a hot start all the value of their MVP odds are going to get bet out. It's usually a good idea to bet players early but there can also be great opportunities as the season goes along. Here are three players that we think have value now and that we don't think will get much better.
MVP Candidates to Bet now
Wilson was the MVP front runner for the first half of the season last year. He hit a wall and fell off near the end behind a subpar offensive line and not much offensive creativity. Bringing in Shane Walden from the Rams should provide a boost and hopefully a better approach. Wilson should be able to take more advantage of play action and a hopefully solid run game. He has Metcalf and Lockett on the outside which is a dangerous combo and bringing in Gerald Everett is an underrated move as well. Another thing to like is how much people seem to bring up the fact that he's never received an MVP vote. MVP is a narrative driven award and you need a good story, everyone loves Russell Wilson and it would be a feel good story for him to win. Also with his odds up around 20/1 it provides great value and will drop significantly if he starts hot again. Westgate and Fanduel still have him at 20/1 which is great value.
20/1 or Better
Staying in the NFC West we make our way to Matthew Stafford. McVay upgraded his QB and Stafford upgraded his coach. This team was the talk of the offseason for awhile but it has cooled off a bit after the loss of Cam Akers. Which seems to be overblown a bit, running backs are one of the easier positions to replace and Akers really didn't even contribute for a good chunk of last season. Stafford should have a lot of easy throws, McVay had Jared Goff playing MVP caliber football a few years ago and Stafford is a pretty significant upgrade. He can make all the throws including improvising and making tough throws, things that Jared Goff really struggled with. Their defense is really solid and they should be pushing for a top seed in the NFC. If they do get back to the top of the NFC expect impressive numbers for Stafford and definite MVP consideration. Bet MGM has 18/1 on him but we think there is value down to 16/1.
16/1 or Better
Why not back to back MVPs for Rodgers? We know that everyone is enamored with Brady and deservedly so with how well he's playing at his age. But for our money Rodgers has been the best QB so far this year. He makes up for so many issues on that team; the coach, kicking game, and a subpar offensive line. While Brady is surrounded by talent in all areas and has a stacked team fresh off a Super Bowl win. Brady is close to odds on for the award right now and we think that 6/1 is great value on someone who we don't think is going to cool off at all. If Brady has a down game or two Rodgers could easily leap frog him with how well he's playing right now. Rodgers is top 5 in QBR, INT's, and TDs. With a fully healthy Adams now too he should be able to close they year strong, very similar to last season.
6/1 or Better
dec 10th 2021
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