NFL Futures: Two Free NFL Coach of the Year Future Bets

August 15, 2021

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Coach of the year futures often hold more value than division or win total bets. The lowest odds on any coach currently around 10/1. When you compare that with a division number of +250 or so it's a much better payout and can often be close to the same bet. 

Top Shelf Futures

Coach of the year is a market you probably want to take advantage of before the season starts. Some bets are tough to find once the season starts and coach of the year can be one of them depending on how many books you have available to bet with. There is great value in this market however, because it is often overlooked. Last year for example, if you liked the Browns and wanted to bet them you had a few options. Over the win total, to win the division, to make the playoffs, conference, or Super Bowl.

Conference and SB would have been higher payouts but any of the other bets would have been even money or maybe 2/1. Stefanski for coach of the year however was around 30/1 before the season began. They missed out on the division by 1 game and got knocked out of the playoffs before the AFC Conf game but Stefanski won coach of the year. They were all pretty good bets but the best payout was Stefanski Coach of the year.

He also had a good story behind him, which is important. You won't see Bill Belicheck or Andy Reid win coach of the year because it's expected for them to be good. You need a team who is going to outperform expectations and a coach who is going to generate enough buzz and interest to get noticed. 

2021/22 Coach of the year Picks

Mike Zimmer - Minnesota Vikings

There are a few question marks with the Minnasota Vikings heading into this year. The defense was atrocious last year and Kirk Cousins is always a wildcard. The struggling defense last year however, and the subpar quarterback provides a great narrative for Zimmer to gain traction for coach of the year.

 

It's important to play out a scenario and make sure it's realistic; so first Minnesota needs to win the division. Bears have a rookie QB and Nagy has yet to prove that he is a good leader or even play caller for that matter. Their defense isn't as good as it was and hasn't been since Fangio left. Detroit's coaching staff is an all around joke, Campbell may be even worse than Matt Patricia and that's pretty hard to do. Then you combine that with Anthony Lynn at OC and Goff at QB, so you can basically throw them out for the division. Green Bay is obviously a problem and is the favorite for a reason. They could very well steam roll this division but they could also have a down year. Rodgers was on fire all last year and it's tough to see him slowing down. But we sometimes forget that Rodgers has always had issues with injuries. He's been injured multiple times and those have often been season ending injuries. Also the offseason drama with them is real and Lafleur still has a lot to prove as a game manager and culture builder. Their defense also has some holes and isn't very strong up front.  

Next you Minnesota to improve, their defense was horrible last year and cost them a lot of games. First they get Danielle Hunter back which gives them a top end edge rusher. They also brought in Dalvin Tomlinson who is a proven run stuffer and can push the middle at times in pass rushing situations as well. Pat Peterson seems to be entirely burned out last year but Zimmer has had incredible success with older cornerbacks, Terrance Newman played at a high level till about 43 for him, so he may be able to resurrect Peterson and get at least one good year out of him. Also overall Zimmer has always been a great defensive coach so he hopefully he can turn things around on that side of the ball and they still have Harrison Smith, Anthony Barr, and Eric Kendricks. 

Lastly they need to score points. Kirk Cousins needs to be average, like he has always been, and they have to stay healthy at RB and WR. If they can do that they should be able to score a lot of points. Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook are both special players and it doesn't get much more consistent than Adam Theilen. 

If Zimmer can whip that defense into shape, continue to score points on offense, and beat out Green Bay for the division Zimmer will get consideration for coach of the year. At 30/1 that is great value and should be considered if you like Minnesota, like we do, this year. 

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Mike Zimmer
Coach of the year
30/1 or better

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