NFL Futures: Is Miami a good bet to go under 9.5 wins?

August 23, 2021

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Brian Flores has done a great job over the past few years getting the Dolphins back to relevancy. But there are some real concerns about Tua and not just from the outside, inside the team there really is a sense of uncertainty surrounding him. 

It's a good idea to target unders in the win totals market. It's true of any sport as unexpected things happen throughout the year. Especially in the age of Covid, injuries and positives tests are going to happen. If a big injury does happen to a team that you have a bet on it's always better to be sitting with the under. 

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We always hear how great Tua is, and he really does seems to be a great person and has an inspiring story. It's been this same narrative on repeat ever since he stepped on to the scene and into the national title game, ultimately bringing Alabama back to get the win. The feel good story is getting a little bumpy however, as the pressure is starting to mount on him. Herbert, who was drafted after him, looks to be a franchise QB in LA. There were multiple times last year that Tua was pulled out of games because coaches felt he couldn't push the ball down the field and be effective as a pocket passer. Tua also didn't have a pass completion that traveled over 30 yds in the air the entire year, he was very underwhelming and ultimately cost them games at times. Tua is a real problem for the Dolphins and they will need some serious improvement from him to get to 10 wins and we're not betting on it.

The AFC East also isn't going to be as much of a cake walk as it was last year. NE will be more competitive as they are healthy now and added some nice pieces to their team this offseason. There's a lot of hope that Robert Salah and Zack Wilson will win some more games for the Jets and the Bills will be very good again. All which leads us to believe that those 6 games in division will be tough. 

 

The Dolphins also lost some good pieces on defense and their front 7 won't be as good as last year. They can't bring Fitzpatrick in out of the bullpen when they need a comeback either. Flores has a good culture going in Miami and they seem to be in a good place, but Tua is a concern and we don't think they can win 10 games this year. 

Miami starts @NE, Buf, @LV, Indy, @TB. They could easily come out of that at 1-4 making it really tough to get to 10 wins. Tua looked good in last week's preseason game, but that was against 2nd and 3rd stringers. Don't buy into any hype, this is a 8-9 or best case scenario 9-7 team. Honestly, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them go 6-10 if the wheels fall off down the stretch. The number seems to be trending down and more 9's are starting to pop up so get on it now. 

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Miami Dolphins
Season Wins
Under 9.5 -130 or better

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